世界银行：油价暴涨等因素构成对东亚2005年威胁

　　中广网北京11月9日消息（记者伍刚）世界银行最新《东亚与太平洋地区经济半年报》指出，东亚各经济体目前经济增长达到自金融危机前以来的最高速度，绝对贫困人口降至历史最低。世界银行预测GDP增长率会趋缓，2004年全年增长率为9.25％，2005年为8％左右。

　　东亚与太平洋地区的经济增长率预计将达7％（不包括日本），该地区的发展中经济体增速预计将达8％以上。中等收入经济体和贫困经济体都在经历高速增长。在来自中国的需

求、全球经济复苏、全球高技术产业景气回升、商品价格走强等诸多因素共同支持下，出口应呈现1988年以来最强劲表现。投资也已复苏，其贡献率占总需求增长的一半。这种强劲表现使4000万东亚人得以脱贫，其中多数在中国、印尼、泰国、越南等国。

　　主管东亚和太平洋地区的世界银行副行长孔杰忠说：“我们估计到今年年底，每天生活费不足两美元的贫困人口总数将占本地区人口的三分之一左右。即使不包括中国在内，贫困人口的绝对数字也将达到历史最低，我们终于克服了1997年金融危机造成的贫困增加的问题。在本地区普遍进行议会和总统大选取得重大政治进展的时期，包括印尼有史以来首次直选总统，这一成就为本地区今年的出色表现锦上添花”。

　　不过，欢庆成功之余，对2005年发展前景的担心日益增加，2005年形势可能不会如此有利，不确定因素会进一步增加。油价暴涨，发达国家增速放慢，高技术产品和商品周期性走低，这些都是对东亚不利的趋势。主要全球性宏观经济平衡，尤其是美国破纪录的经常帐户逆差和东亚的顺差，以及中国的投资高涨，都有待于回归到可持续的轨道上，这些加大了本地区面临的风险。

　　东亚和太平洋地区首席经济学家霍米·卡拉思说：“虽然2004年是强劲增长的一年，但近期的数据也表明东亚复苏已达峰顶，经济活动正在进入减速。我们在上一期区域经济半年报中所谈到的种种风险正在加剧，使得前景更加不确定”。

　　达成共识的观点是，包括美国、日本和欧洲在内的发达国家的增长率会暂时趋缓，但会向持续扩展的方向发展。虽然中国的增长、投资和进口可能也会逐渐放缓，但这样会更具可持续性，为地区经济增加几分稳定。

　　世界银行驻中国首席经济学家郝福满说：“经济降温的政策措施已初显成效，但宣布“过热”的投资高涨已结束还为时过早”。他指出过度投资的潜在动力并未改变。“与此同时，最近提高利率尽管幅度不大但令人鼓舞，因为这证明政府是愿意在必要时动用这种手段的，也是表明进一步走向市场化的宏观经济管理的一个信号”。

　　据世界银行预测，中国的潜在通货膨胀压力仍然是有限的，因此近期不太可能采取激烈的宏观经济措施来为经济降温，假如会出现经济着陆的话，也将会是软着陆。鉴于最近数月来持续旺盛的需求指标，对硬着陆的担心也仍是有限的。

　　全球石油价格暴涨将会使东亚新兴市场国家今年的石油进口成本提高250亿美元，降低本地区作为能源净进口国的大多数经济体的收入，也会减少日本、美国和欧洲等本地区主要出口市场的收入。

　　卡拉思先生说：“石油价格上涨的影响可能会使本地区明年的增长率降低0.5－1个百分点，对菲律宾、泰国、韩国等国影响较大”。

　　同样令人担心的是缩小东亚经常帐户顺差和美国经常帐户逆差所需要作出的调整的性质。卡拉思说：“东亚各经济体所能作出的最大贡献就是通过扩大国内私人投资，进一步实行贸易自由化，尤其是服务贸易自由化，从而减少顺差”。政策制定者应该做什么？

　　报告认为，政策制定者面临的一个关键问题是强化投资环境，培育该地区近期出现的投资复苏，从而使复苏能够安全渡过目前全球充满不确定性和周期性放缓的时期。

　　区域经济半年报的主要作者高级经济学家米兰·布兰巴特说：“与其为在某种程度上不可避免的周期性放缓烦恼不已，还不如集中精力培育私人投资领域正在出现的复苏”。增加投资可以扩展复苏的范围，超越目前推动增长、出口和消费需求的主要因素的限制。“出口增长可能会因周期性因素和全球前景而受阻，私人消费增长在由居民信贷推动的情况下也有其自身的危险，正如最近韩国和中国香港出现的情形”。

　　在报告结尾处有一个专题部分题为“加强东亚投资环境”。这部分根据对五个国家6500多个企业所作的调查，记录了东亚地区企业面临的关键性制约和问题。这部分针对各国为减少不确定性，降低投资成本和提高回报率可以立即采取的具体措施提出了建议，并对这些措施进行了优先排序，包括提高法院裁决和法规解释的可预见性，降低宏观经济风险，减少经营管制、劳动力灵活性不足和官僚主义，遏制行贿受贿和腐败现象，提高电力供应和其他基础设施服务的可靠性，强化技能培训等。附英文稿EastAsiaregion set to grow by healthy 7 percent in 2004Oil pricespikes,other global uncertainties threaten to mar 2005

　　East Asia’s economies are growing at their swiftest pacesincebefore the financial crisis with fewer people than ever livinginextreme poverty, according to the latest East Asia andPacificRegional Update, the World Bank’s twice-yearly look at theregion’seconomies.

　　Economic growth is expected to top 7 percent for East AsiaandPacific (excluding Japan), while developing economies in theregionare expected to expand by more than 8 percent. High growth isbeingexperienced by middle income and poor economies alike.Exportsshould turn in their strongest performance since 1988,supported bydemand from China, the global recovery, a rebound inthe globalhigh-tech industry, and strong commodity prices.Investment hasalso recovered, contributing half of aggregate demandgrowth. Thisstrong performance has lifted 40 million East Asiansout ofpoverty, mostly in China, Indonesia, Thailand andVietnam.

　　“We are estimating that by the end of this year, the numberofpeople living on less than $2 a day will be around one third oftheregion’s population. Even excluding China, the absolute numberofpoor would be at their lowest level ever, finally overcomingthehigher poverty created by the 1997 crisis,” said RegionalVicePresident for East Asia and Pacific Mr. Jemal-ud-din Kassum.“Thisexpansion is happening during a time of major politicaladvanceswith a sweep of legislative and presidential elections,includingIndonesia’s first ever direct election of a president,capping whatlooks like being a remarkable year for the region.”

　　Yet, amid these successes, there are growing concerns thattheoutlook for 2005 may be less favorable and more uncertain.Thespike in oil prices, slower growth in rich countries, anddownturnsin the high-tech and commodity cycles are all unfavorabletrendsfor East Asia. Major global macroeconomic balances, inparticularrecord U.S. current account deficits and East Asiansurpluses, andthe investment boom in China, still need to broughtontosustainable paths, intensifying the risks facing theregion.

　　“Although 2004 has been a strong year, recent data alsosuggestthat the recovery in East Asia has peaked, and thateconomicactivity is shifting into lower gear,” said Mr. HomiKharas, ChiefEconomist for the East Asia and Pacific Region. “Therisks wetalked about in previous editions of the Regional Updateareintensifying, making the outlook more uncertain.”

　　The consensus view is that growth in the developedworld,including the United States, Japan, and Europe, willslowtemporarily but build into a sustained expansion. AlthoughChinasgrowth, investment and imports might also slow gradually,thiswould be more sustainable and add a measure of stability totheregional economy.

　　“Policy measures to cool down the economy are starting toshowsome success, but it is too early to call the end of theinvestmentboom that has become known as ‘overheating.’ Bert Hofman,LeadEconomist for China said, noting that underlying incentivesforoverinvestment have not changed. “At the same time, therecentincrease in interest rates, while modest, is encouraging, asitshows the authorities willingness to use this instrumentwhenneeded, and signals a further move to moremarket-basedmacroeconomic management.”

　　For China, the World Bank expects that, withunderlyinginflationary pressures projected to remain limited,drasticmacroeconomic measures to cool down the economy are unlikelyto beimminent, and if the economy lands at all, it is likely to beasoft landing. Fears of a hard landing also remain limited inlightof continued strong demand indicators in recent months. TheWorldBank expect GDP growth to ease to 9? percent for 2004 as awholeand around 8 percent in 2005.

　　The steep spike in global oil prices will increase the oilimportbill for emerging East Asia by US$25 billion this year,reducingthe incomes of the majority of regional economies that arenetenergy importers, as well as the region’s primary exportmarketslike Japan, the US, and Europe.

　　“The impact of higher oil prices could shave 0.5 to 1percentagepoints off growth rates in the region next year,” Mr.Kharas said,“with countries like the Philippines, Thailand andKorea at theupper end of this range.”

　　Also of concern is the nature of adjustment required to reducethesize of current account surpluses in East Asia and deficits intheUnited States. “The best contribution East Asian economies canmakeis to reduce their surpluses by expanding domesticprivateinvestment and further liberalizing trade, especially inservices,”added Mr. Kharas.What should policymakers do?

　　A key issue for policy makers, the report says, is to nurturetherecent investment recovery in the region by strengtheningtheinvestment climate, so that the recovery is sustained throughthepresent period of global uncertainties and cyclicalslowdown.

　　“Rather than fretting too much about a cyclical slowdown thatisinevitable to some extent, the focus is better placed onnurturingthe emerging recovery in private investment,” said LeadEconomistMr. Milan Brahmbhatt, principal author of the RegionalUpdate.Increases in investment would broaden the recovery beyondthelimitations of the current drivers of growth, exports andconsumerdemand. “Export growth could be crimped by the cyclicalfactors andthe global outlook, and private consumption growth hasits dangerswhen it is boosted by rapid growth in household credit,as recentlyshown in Korea and Hong Kong (China),” according toMr.Brahmbhatt.

　　A Special Focus section at the end of the report,entitled“Strengthening the Investment Climate in East Asia”documents thekey constraints and problems faced by firms in EastAsia, based onresponses from over 6500 businesses in fivecountries. The sectionpoints to country-specific actions that canbe taken immediately toreduce uncertainty, lower the costs ofinvesting and increasereturns. It prioritizes among getting greaterpredictability incourt judgments and interpretation of regulations,reducingmacroeconomic risk, cutting business regulation,laborinflexibility and red tape, reducing bribes andcorruption,improving the reliability of power and otherinfrastructureservices, and building skills.来源：中国广播网 责编：金风